COVID-19 EFFECTIVE POST PANDEMIC FUND MANAGEMENT AND SURVIVAL (COPING STRATEGY MASTERCLAS)

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presented by Chuks Nordi Okonta, CrFA. To SFAFP members online April 27, 2020 .

At end of the course you will be able to

Understand the following.                        

1- Economic and Financial Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and Households

2- Managing Funds and ensuring Household and Community Sustainability

3- Economic and Financial Forecast of Post COVID-19

Covid-19 pandemic is respiratory track disease which originated in china

it has affected over 2.8m people as at 25th April 2020 which was  declared

pandemic by WHO.

 Looking at Economic and financial impact of COVD-19 on businesses and

Households, details of different sectors of the global and local economies.

Some economists suggest that China’s economy may contract for the first

time since the 1970s. Caixin’s purchasing managers index for the services

sector of China’s economy fell to 26.5 in February 2020, the lowest figure

recorded since the survey’s advent in 2005, and car sales dropped 86% in

China in February. As the coronavirus spreads around the world, the stock

markets have experienced their worst crash since 1987. Many countries with

 economies, such as Italy, Nigeria and Spain, have enacted quarantine

policies.This has led to the disruption of business activities in many economic sectors.

Financial markets

Economic turmoil associated with the coronavirus pandemic has wide-ranging

and severe impacts upon financial markets, including stock, bond and

commodity (including crude oil and gold) markets. The United Nations

Development Program expects a US$220 billion reduction in revenue in

developing countries, and expects COVID-19’s economic impact could last for

months or even years. Some expect natural gas prices to fall. Here

investors are the victims.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing factories in world has short down dueto  covid-19 pandemic.

New vehicle sales in the United States have declined by 40%. The American

Big Three have all shut down their US factories. The German automotive

industry is coming into the crisis after having already suffered from the

Diesel gate-scandal, as well as competition from electric cars. The case is not different in Nigeria.

See chart below –cnbc

China on red curve dropped in February and going up  in March because government able to contain covid-19 ;

 The arts, entertainment and sport

The arts (general)

 The epidemic had a sudden and substantial impact on the arts and cultural

heritage  sectors worldwide. The global health crisis and the uncertainly

resulting from it profoundly affected organizations’ operations as well as

individuals – both employed and independent – across the sector. By March

2020, across the world most cultural institutions had been indefinitely

closed (or at least with their services radically curtailed) exhibitions,

events and performances cancelled or postponed. Many individuals

temporarily or permanently lost contracts or employment with varying

degrees of warning and financial assistance available. Equally, financial

stimulus from governments and charities for artists, have provided greatly

differing levels of support, depending on the sector and the country. In

countries such as Australia, where the arts contributed to about 6.4% of

GDP, effects on individuals and the economy have been significant. The

story is not different in Nigeria.

Sport

Most major sporting events were cancelled or postponed, including the 2020

Summer Olympics in Tokyo, which were postponed until 2021 on 24 March 2020,

financial impact of this in Nigeria for instance lose of revenue , price

money, increase of operations. Etc.

Television

The pandemic has shut down or delayed production of television programs

Publishing

The pandemic is predicted to have a dire effect on local newspapers in the

United States, where many were already severely struggling beforehand.

Retail

pandemic has impacted the retail sector. Some countries allowed food retail

shops but with conditions.

Some retailers have employed contactless home delivery pickup for items

purchased through e-commerce sites

Agriculture

 farmers have been embracing digital technologies as a way to directly sell

produce, and community-supported agriculture and direct-sell delivery

systems are on the rise. Food insecurity is looming.

Shopping centers around the world responded by reducing hours or closing

down temporarily in response. As of 18 March 2020, the footfall to shopping

centers fell by up-to 30%, with significant impact in every continent

In light of the public health situation in which includes afflicted regions

where retail sectors deemed non-essential have been closed temporary.

Restaurant sector

pandemic has impacted the restaurant business. In the beginning of March

2020, some major cities in the US announced that bars and restaurants would

be closed to sit-down dinners and limited to takeout orders and

delivery. Some employees were fired, and more employees lacked sick leave in

the sector compared to similar sectors. With only carry-out and delivery

services, most servers and bartenders were laid off, prompting these

employees creating “virtual tip jars” across 23 U.S. cities.[91]

Science and technology

The pandemic has impacted productivity of science, space and technology

projects, and to the world’s leading space agencies – including NASA and

the European Space Agency having to halt production of the Space Launch

System, James Webb Space Telescope, and put space science probes into

hibernation or low power mode. Most of both agencies’ field centers have

directed most personnel to telework. The pandemic may have improved

scientific communication or established new forms of it. For instance a lot

of data is being released on preprint servers and is getting dissected on

social Internet platforms and sometimes in the media before entering formal

peer review. Scientists are reviewing, editing, analyzing and publishing

manuscripts and data at record speeds and in large numbers. This intense

communication may have allowed an unusual level of collaboration and

efficiency among scientists.

Tourism

severe effects because tourism depends on travel

quarantine restrictions

fear of airports and other places of mass gathering.

Transportation/Aviation

This section only describes one highly specialized aspect of its associated

subject.

A nearly empty flight from Beijing to Los Angeles during the pandemic

The pandemic has had a significant impact on aviation industry due to the

resulting travel restrictions as well as slump in demand among travelers.

Significant reductions in passenger numbers has resulted in planes flying

empty between airports. and the cancellation flights else plane dying empty.

Unemployment

The International Labor Organization stated on 7 April that it predicted a

6.7% loss of job hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, equivalent

to 195 million full-time jobs. They also estimated that 30 million jobs

were lost in the first quarter alone, compared to 25 million during the

2008 financial crisis.

In January and February 2020, during the height of the epidemic in Wuhan,

about 5 million people in China lost their jobs. Many of China’s nearly 300

million rural migrant workers have been stranded at home in inland

provinces or trapped in Hubei province.

In March 2020, more than 10 million Americans lost their jobs and applied

for government aid. The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs in

the United States and unemployment rate may hit 32%, according to estimates

by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The lockdown in India has left tens of millions of migrant workers

unemployed.

The survey from the Angus Reid Institute found that 44% of Canadian

households have experienced some type of job loss.

Nearly 900,000 workers lost their jobs in Spain since it went into lockdown

in mid-March 2020. During the second half of March, 4 million French

workers applied for temporary unemployment benefits and 1 million British

workers applied for a universal credit scheme. Major cities in Nigeria

Short down this will lead to unemployment. 

See chart bellow source-CNBC

Job lost started in China after January as green curve goes down.

Educational impact

A sign on a closed local school because of the coronavirus

The pandemic has affected educational systems worldwide, leading to the

widespread closures of schools and universities. According to data released

by UNESCO on 25 March, school and university closures due to COVID-19 were

implemented nationwide in 165 countries. Including localized closures, this

affects over 1.5 billion students worldwide, accounting for 87% of enrolled

Learners. How will students learn? They are now adopting e learning . 

Job lost  looming.

Coronavirus and income

Low income individuals are more likely to contract the coronavirus and to

die from it. In both New York City and Barcelona, low income neighborhoods

are disproportionately hit by coronavirus cases. Hypotheses for why this is

the case include that poorer families are more likely to live in crowded

Housing – Lagos (Agejule), Abuja (Maraba ) and work in the low skill jobs,

such as supermarkets and elder care, which are deemed essential during the

crisis. In the United States, millions of low-income people may lack access

to health care due to being uninsured or underinsured. Many low income

workers in service jobs have become unemployed.

Religious impact

A church forced to close because of the coronavirus

The pandemic has impacted religion in various ways, including the

cancellation of the worship services of various faiths, the closure of

Sunday Schools, as well as the cancellation of pilgrimages surrounding

Observances and festivals. Many churches, synagogues, mosques, and temples

Have offered worship through live stream amidst the pandemic. Relief wings

Of religious organizations have dispatched medical supplies and other aid

To affected areas. Adherents of many religions have gathered together to

Pray for an end to the pandemic, for those affected by it, as well as for

The God they believe in to give physicians and scientists the wisdom to

Combat the disease; in the United States, Trump designated 15 March 2020 as

a National Day of Prayer for “God’s healing hand to be placed on the people

of our Nation”.

Social impact

On 18 March 2020, the World Health Organization issued a report related to

mental health and psychosocial issues by addressing instructions and some

social considerations during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Due to doubts if pets or other livestock may pass on coronavirus to

humans, many people were reluctant to keep their pets fearing transmission,

for instance in the Arab World, celebrities were urging people to keep and

protect their pets. Meanwhile, people in the U.K. tended to acquire more

pets during the coronavirus lockdown.

Domestic violence

Many countries have reported an increase in domestic violence and intimate

partner violence attributed to lockdowns amid the coronavirus

pandemic.Financial insecurity, stress, and uncertainty have lead to

increased aggression at home, with abusers able to control large amounts of

their victims’ daily life.United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres

has called for a domestic violence “ceasefire”.

All in all ,most economies in the world survive by taxes, duties, fines,

sales crude/mineral resources. Now that economy is short down. Every

economy now suffers it. Revenue to government will drop , and will rise

soon, This takes us to next topic. Fund management.

Quotes. UN dep.  scribe

As the world wrestles with the unprecedented implications of the COVID-19

coronavirus pandemic, “we are facing a human crisis unlike any we have

experienced” and our “social fabric and cohesion is under stress.”

That was the assessment of UN Deputy-Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed during

a digital meeting of the Forum’s COVID Action Platform

<https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-economic-forum-launches-covid-action-platform/> on

8 April.

Fund management during the covid-19

FIG ABOVE –   increasing government expenditure while every others declining due to covid-19

The newest update to the brookings-financial times tracking indexes for the global Economic Recovery (TIGER ) shows that, with the coronavirus pandemic, the world now facing the most serious challenge since world war 11 ended. The update says the worst is yet to come.

Since the economy is short down because of dreaded covid-19 a common enemy

to the world. Government announced lockdown. In the light of the above,

corporate bodies, religious bodies, NGOS, individuals. CBN, World Bank,

IMF, EU, countries, politicians… Gave palliatives .for poorest of the

poor-( in Nigeria it was not properly distributed because it  is wheel through

political process) , for healthcare development, for isolation centers, for

e-learning. Government has adopted social distancing, wearing of facemasks,

washing of hands, lockdown for one month, food for vulnerable persons,

provide isolation centers, quarantine ,  in the case of Nigeria despite all

measures put in place the number of  persons affected by covid-19 is still

on the increase ,  despite all these  efforts made  to cushion the effect

of the lockdown most Nigerians experience hunger, lost of job, pay cut,

death of love one caused by the virus, .  the world wait for the vaccine ,

all donations are being tracked.

See Nigeria table showing covid-19  update. 26/4/20 for more information  www.ncdc.gov.ng

Households funds management :

This is not the time to invest, buy new furniture and fittings, buy cars,

or marry new wife. This is the time to manage funds in your hands to

provide basic needs, put food on your table, and medicals. borrow if

you don’t have to feed.  Have cash around you.

Let us now look at post covid-19.

Economic and Financial Forecast of Post COVID-19

There will be light at the end of the tunnel.

I see opportunities.

The technology sector will boom because going forward all meeting,

conference, offices, education sector, e commerce now use technology to

move ahead. Example Nigeria Governors forum held meeting via video

conference from comfort of their homes.

Production using locally sourced materials will increase.

Our healthcare system will improved with cutting edge technology and state

of arts facilities because there  efforts to upgrade hospitals  to fight

covid-19

Some coping and survival strategies

  • Stay on top of reliable information on covid-19, listen to country Radio and TV to know what government is doing in respect of providing medicals, tax filling payment. Food, etc.
  • Build an emergency budget, is not too late to build emergency budget, create it base on  your reduced level of income , then  outline all your most  important expenses(basic needs) because of lockdown your expenses will be less. Example  you are not doing entertainment, recreation, daycare, eating out, etc.
  • Contact your creditors for loan extensions, revised terms, even reduced interest rates.
  • Avoid the temptation of cheap credit, interest rate on loans will low during and after covid-19 do good calculation if you can meet up before accepting credits.
  • Protect your mental and physical well-being by thinking well, be positive, avoid excess alcohol, connect with friends, and loved ones by video chat, extent help to less privileges if you can, take free online course, sit with your children and play, fix broken items, and be careful of free cash transfer some are fraudulent.
  • Government should reduce cost and improve transparency ,reduce administrative cost, prioritizing the most effective development process to free up more money for health and Education on spending, strengthening anti-corruption institution, to policymakers prepare Nigeria for the future just like Nigeria government has set up economic committee on post covid-19 .

See financial quote .

Covid-19 may have plunged us into a crisis of unprecedented proportions. But, as Winson churchil once admonished, we must never let a crisis go to waste. In the light of above, CBN approved  initial #500 billion on medium term for manufacturing firms.world Bank and IMF plans for Africa is to suspend debt repayments in order to provide much-needed support to the poorest countries,also provide debt standstil for Africa, mobilized $57 billion for Africa in 2020 including upwards of $18 billion each for world Bank and IMF to provide front-line health services, support poor and the vulnerable and keep economics afloat. World Bank provides $160 billion in finance support , $55 billion of which will be for Africa over next 15months, to help countries support the poor and vulnerable, business and bolster economic recovery.

Watch video https://youtu.be/CwEdff8sMpY    on post covid-19

Financial reporting.

The COVID-19 pandemic crisis and its economic effects mean that investors and other stakeholders need high-quality financial information more than ever.

 To this end, accountancy firms, regulators, IFAC member organizations and

others have quickly made available advice and guidance on the accounting

and financial reporting requirements that will need to be considered in

addressing the financial effects of COVID-19 when preparing financial

statements. Many of these resources are conveniently available through

IFAC’s COVID-19 resource center

https://www.ifac.org/knowledge-gateway/series/covid-19-resources-ifacs-network

economic recovery charts bellow-

By forecast  the economy will start growing again from second or third quarters of 2020. See chart above

.

Finally, when it comes to surviving a financial crisis, there no shame in asking for help, learning on those you trust, try helping others as best as you can. And the covid-19 is a bigger crisis than most of the world has dealt with in a very long time. We are all in this together. Individual, families, community, business big or small and all levels of healthcare system and government sticking together and helping others out is really the only way we will overcome it successfully.

Thank you.

#stay safe.

27th April, 2020.